Tracking and Attribution

Why Prediction Market Tracking Is Different

In a standard sportsbook affiliate program, you track a clear funnel: click, registration, deposit, first bet, ongoing wagering. Each step is a server-side event that your tracking platform captures. Prediction markets complicate this flow in two ways. First, crypto-native platforms use wallet connections instead of traditional registration -- there is no email, no password, and no form submission to fire a conversion event. Second, the revenue-generating action is not a single bet but an ongoing stream of trades across multiple markets, making attribution a continuous process rather than a one-time event.

Tracking Architecture by Platform Type

Wallet-Based Attribution for Crypto-Native Platforms

When a user clicks an affiliate link on a crypto-native prediction market, the platform stores the affiliate ID in a session parameter. When the user connects their wallet (MetaMask, Phantom, Coinbase Wallet), the platform maps the wallet address to the affiliate ID. All subsequent trades from that wallet are attributed to the referring affiliate, regardless of whether the user clears cookies, switches browsers, or uses a different device. This wallet-persistent attribution is more durable than cookie-based tracking.

The challenge is multi-wallet users. A single trader might use different wallets for different market categories or position sizes. If the same user connects a second wallet without clicking the affiliate link again, that wallet is unattributed. Platforms that support wallet grouping -- linking multiple wallets to a single user profile based on on-chain transaction patterns or voluntary linking -- can capture a higher percentage of referred trading volume.

Event-Driven Conversion Tracking

Prediction market affiliate programs should track more than just registration and first deposit. The events that matter for commission calculation and partner performance analysis include: first trade executed, cumulative trading volume milestones ($1,000, $10,000, $50,000), number of unique markets traded, position settlement events (wins and losses), and deposit/withdrawal patterns. Each of these events should fire a server-side postback to the affiliate tracking platform.

• Registration/Wallet Connection -- fires CPA trigger if qualified within attribution window
• First Trade Executed -- confirms the user is an active trader, not a dormant registration
• Volume Milestone Events -- fires at predefined thresholds for tiered commission models
• Market Diversification -- tracks how many unique markets a referred trader participates in (indicates engagement depth)
• Settlement Events -- tracks P&L of referred traders for RevShare calculation on platform fees
• Churn Indicators -- flags referred traders who have not traded in 14+ days for reactivation campaigns

S2S Postback Configuration

For regulated platforms with traditional account registration, S2S (server-to-server) postback tracking remains the standard. The platform fires an HTTP request to the affiliate tracking system each time a conversion event occurs, passing the click ID, event type, and revenue data. This avoids client-side tracking limitations (ad blockers, cookie restrictions, iOS privacy changes) and provides auditable conversion data.

Configure postbacks for each commission-relevant event: account creation, first deposit, first trade, and rolling 30-day volume. Include the exchange fee revenue generated by the referred trader in the postback payload so the tracking platform can calculate RevShare in real time rather than relying on end-of-month reconciliation.