RevShare vs CPA Calculator 2026: Breakeven Tables & Verdicts

The RevShare vs CPA decision reduces to one number: breakeven months = CPA / (monthly NGR per player x RevShare %), and any deal that breaks even inside 12 months favors RevShare while anything beyond 18 months favors CPA. This calculator page precomputes that number across every realistic combination: CPA offers from $100 to $600, monthly net gaming revenue per player from $10 to $150, and RevShare rates from 25% to 45%. It then extends the answer over a 24-month horizon at three churn profiles, because raw breakeven ignores the cohort decay that decides most real deals. Every grid is a static lookup table, so you can price a deal in the time it takes to find your row and column.

Fast Verdict Table: RevShare or CPA in 10 Seconds

Three inputs decide the model in 90% of cases: expected player lifetime NGR, your cashflow position, and your confidence in volume quality. Find your situation in the table below, then use the breakeven grids further down to pressure-test the exact numbers. The verdicts assume market-typical terms: CPA between $100 and $600 and RevShare between 25% and 45% of NGR.

How the RevShare vs CPA Calculator Works

The calculator compares two payment streams for the same referred player: a one-time cost per acquisition payment of $100-$600 at first deposit, versus a 25-45% share of that player's net gaming revenue every month the player stays active. CPA value is fixed the moment the player converts. RevShare value accumulates monthly and depends on two variables the grids below expose: monthly NGR per player and how fast the cohort decays. The comparison method matches the formulas in our affiliate marketing math reference; this page precomputes the outputs so no spreadsheet is needed.

Two companion pages support the grids here: the affiliate marketing math reference derives each formula with worked examples, and the NGR calculator shows how gross gaming revenue becomes the NGR figure that RevShare percentages apply to. Use those pages for the theory; use this one to price a live deal.

Breakeven Months Lookup Table at 30% RevShare

At a 30% RevShare, a $300 CPA against $50 of monthly NGR per player breaks even in 20 months, and every cell below applies the same formula: breakeven months = CPA / (monthly NGR per player x 0.30). Read your CPA offer down the left column and your realistic monthly NGR per player across the top. Any cell under 12 suggests RevShare recovers the CPA fast enough to be worth the wait; cells over 24 mean the average player churns before RevShare ever catches up.

Breakeven Months Lookup Table at 40% RevShare

Raising RevShare from 30% to 40% cuts every breakeven figure by exactly 25%, because breakeven months scale inversely with the RevShare rate. The same $300 CPA against $50 monthly NGR that needed 20 months at 30% needs 15 months at 40%. Super-affiliate negotiations usually happen in this band, so the grid below is the one to bring to a renegotiation.

Adjustment factors cover every other RevShare rate: multiply any cell in the 30% table by 1.20 for a 25% deal, by 0.86 for 35%, by 0.75 for 40%, and by 0.67 for 45%. The multiplier is simply 30 divided by the offered percentage, so a 33% offer uses 0.91 and a 50% profit-share style deal uses 0.60. This keeps the two printed grids sufficient for the full 25-50% range seen across iGaming, Forex, and prop trading programs.

24-Month Value Comparison at 3 Churn Profiles

Churn decides the winner: at a $250 CPA versus 35% RevShare on players producing $60 of month-one NGR, CPA pays 82% more when the cohort decays 15% monthly, while RevShare pays 31% more when decay slows to 4%. The table below runs the full 24-month comparison per referred player at five monthly decay rates, covering the three standard churn profiles: fast-churn casual traffic (around 15%), median mixed traffic (8-10%), and VIP-heavy retention traffic (4-6%). The crossover sits near 6-7% monthly decay for these terms.

Two structural facts follow from the table: CPA value is flat in retention while RevShare value compounds with it, and the margin between models is small near the median. A program whose cohorts decay 8% monthly loses only 10% by picking the wrong model, but a fast-churn affiliate accepting RevShare gives up nearly half the deal value. That asymmetry is why experienced affiliates demand cohort retention data before accepting RevShare, and why operators quietly steer unproven traffic toward it.

Verdict Framework: LTV, Cashflow, and Volume Certainty

Three trailers rank above everything else when choosing a model: player lifetime value (weight roughly 50%), cashflow position (30%), and volume certainty (20%). LTV sets which model pays more on paper; cashflow determines whether you can afford to wait for the RevShare tail; volume certainty covers fraud exposure, qualification rules, and whether the traffic source can be verified. Score each trailer for your situation and the model choice usually becomes obvious.

Fraud exposure differs by model and belongs in the volume-certainty trailer: CPA deals attract multi-accounting and deposit-refund abuse because the payout lands at conversion, while RevShare deals attract bonus abuse that drains NGR. Operators mitigate CPA fraud with qualification rules (minimum deposit, wagering thresholds, KYC completion) and clawback clauses that reverse commission on chargebacks or self-excluded players; a CPA network sitting between operator and affiliate typically enforces its own additional validation layer. Price these protections into the deal: a CPA with a 90-day clawback window is worth 10-15% less to the affiliate than the same headline figure with no clawback.

How to Calculate RevShare vs CPA Breakeven: Step by Step

Five steps produce a defensible model choice, and steps 1-2 need only two numbers from your reporting: monthly NGR per active player and monthly cohort decay. Run the sequence for each traffic source separately, because a blended average hides the segment-level answer that actually prices the deal.

1. Pull monthly NGR per active referred player from your platform reporting for the trailing 6 months; if you lack data, use $25-$50 for casual casino traffic, $50-$100 for mixed sportsbook and casino, and $100+ for VIP or Forex traffic (Track360 analysis).
2. Compute naive breakeven months: CPA offer / (monthly NGR per player x RevShare rate), or read it directly from the 30% and 40% grids above using the adjustment factors for other rates.
3. Reject fast: if naive breakeven exceeds 24 months, take the CPA; if it is under 6 months, take the RevShare; only continue to step 4 for the 6-24 month middle band.
4. Adjust for churn using the 24-month comparison table: estimate your monthly cohort decay from historical cohorts, then check which side of the 6-7% crossover your traffic sits on.
5. Stress the winner against cashflow and fraud terms: discount RevShare value 15-30% if you need cash for reinvestment, and discount CPA value 10-15% if the contract carries clawback clauses or strict qualification rules you have not modeled.

When Hybrid Beats Both

Hybrid deals price each component at roughly 40-60% of its standalone value, so a program offering $300 CPA or 35% RevShare standalone will typically offer around $150 CPA plus 17.5% RevShare as the hybrid. In the $300-$700 lifetime NGR band where most real cohorts live, that structure lands within 15% of whichever pure model turns out best, which makes hybrid the rational choice under retention uncertainty. The hybrid CPA component also softens the affiliate's cashflow problem while the RevShare component keeps the operator honest on player quality reporting.

Hybrids carry their own negotiation surface: negative carryover treatment on the RevShare component, whether the CPA component counts against RevShare earnings, and which qualification rules gate the CPA trigger. Insist that both components and every deduction are defined in the written agreement; MGA licensee obligations and UKGC licence conditions both push operators toward documented, auditable payout terms, and a hybrid with undefined deductions is where payment disputes concentrate. Cross-vertical note: Forex and prop trading programs run the same structure with different labels, where a sub-affiliate CPA plus spread-share mirrors casino CPA plus NGR share, and FCA financial promotion rules add an approval layer on the marketing side.

Methodology & Assumptions

Two formulas generate every grid on this page: breakeven months = CPA / (monthly NGR per player x RevShare %), and 24-month RevShare value = RevShare % x month-one NGR x the sum of (1 - decay)^t for t from 0 to 23. All benchmark inputs are either Track360 analysis of cross-program anonymized aggregates or standard arithmetic anyone can reproduce. The 10 assumptions behind the tables:

• CPA range $100-$600 and RevShare range 25-45% reflect market-typical iGaming and Forex affiliate terms observed across programs tracked on Track360 (Track360 analysis).
• Monthly NGR per player of $10-$150 covers casual casino traffic at the low end through VIP-skewed cohorts at the high end (Track360 analysis).
• Breakeven grids assume constant monthly NGR per player with no churn; they are deliberately optimistic for RevShare and are intended as a first-pass filter only.
• The 24-month comparison uses geometric cohort decay at 4-15% monthly, matching the decay curves typical of casino and sportsbook cohorts.
• The 24-month table uses a $250 CPA, 35% RevShare, and $60 month-one NGR per player as the central scenario; other terms scale proportionally.
• No discounting is applied inside the 24-month window; adding a 1-1.5% monthly discount rate would shift the crossover roughly one decay point in CPA's favor.
• Negative carryover is assumed enabled on RevShare figures; no-carryover deals are worth roughly 10-15% more to the affiliate at equal percentages.
• Fraud, clawback, and qualification effects are treated as post-model adjustments of 10-15%, not modeled per-scenario.
• Hybrid pricing at 40-60% of standalone component values reflects observed market convention, not a theoretical optimum.
• All figures are pre-tax and denominated in USD; gaming tax and platform fees are already inside NGR as deductions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Five questions cover what deal-makers ask most: the breakeven formula, typical crossover timing, churn's role, hybrid fairness, and negotiating leverage.